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he recession is over. It has been for five months, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. So why aren’t we seeing a rapid return to business as usual? Why are corporate travel restrictions still impacting trade show attendance? Why are exhibit-related suppliers still reporting revenues that fall below 2007 and 2008 levels? And why are exhibit managers still being forced to do more with less?

Because an economic disaster isn’t all that different from a natural disaster in that things don’t return to normal the second the earth stops shaking. It takes months — even years — of recovery and rebuilding to return to the status quo you used to know.

The same will undoubtedly prove true as we work through 2010, which by most accounts is anticipated to be a year of stabilization and re-growth. Some indicators are already demonstrating upward momentum. The 2010 International Consumer Electronics Show, for instance, posted a slight increase in attendance last January, following the 20-percent drop it reported in 2009. Preliminary figures hint at a roughly 6-percent uptick, which — all things considered — is a pretty significant coup.


Thankfully, it seems that the worst might finally be behind us, as the results of EXHIBITOR’s 2010 Economic Outlook Survey point to anticipated stabilization in trade show budgets and a slight but significant increase in overall marketing budgets, compared to 2009.

A majority of exhibit managers (54 percent) report that their trade show budgets will hold steady in 2010, while an optimistic 15 percent of respondents plan budget growth this year. Sure, a sizeable chunk of exhibit managers (31 percent) anticipate additional cuts to their trade show budgets in 2010, but that figure compares favorably against last year’s data in which 41 percent anticipated cuts.

In Their Own Words

The following quotes are a representative sampling of exhibit managers’ responses to our open-
ended question on how they feel about the economy and our industry.

"Our slogan for 2010 is ‘Do more with less.’"

"As a nonprofit, we’ve been hit hard due to decreases in grants and funding. People are spending differently and looking for bargains."

"Marketing mediums are evolving constantly and, in my opinion, you must work to stay atop those and not continue to do what you’ve always done. This always proves to be a challenge."

"Now is the time to refurbish or renew exhibits and staff as well. It is most important that we always project positive images in order to gain positive results."

"I’m forecasting the economy is not rebounding, but instead resetting. It will be OK, but different."

"We as exhibitors cannot fund all of the different shows and organizations. We need to pick the most successful shows and drop the rest. We already have dropped some shows."

"With the lingering recession and abated budgets, we all need to focus on being more efficient marketing-communications professionals and focus on the tools that target our specific objectives."

"My company is primarily involved with aviation marketing, military as well as civilian. What decisions our new government makes could make or break us as well as the industry in which we are involved."

"We have better success in Canada in the niche markets than we do in the states, due to the economy. In the future, that might change. I will pray for economic security, but we all know that is dicey."

"Drayage is hurting all exhibitors’ efforts to lower costs. When we find a cost savings, we find out that drayage has gone up again and that savings from one item now has to go to the additional drayage costs."

"Conference attendees do not recognize the importance of exhibitor involvement at their industry events. If it weren’t for the exhibitors, the conferences likely wouldn’t even exist. But recently it seems like attendees actively avoid the exhibit areas rather than patronizing the companies who, by exhibiting, make the conferences possible in the first place."

"Show services and union rates are a big factor of whether we survive or not as an industry. I hope the unions realize this and help work with exhibiting companies and show management to reshape our industry before it’s too late."

"If attendance at shows does not start picking up, we will stop exhibiting at them. We can’t be missed if no one comes to miss us."

"The economy has really impacted my business, and we are cutting back on everything, hoping to hold on until the market really recovers."

"Manufacturing took a major hit in 2009, which caused us to reduce the number of shows and events that we participated in. However, those that we attended were very productive for us. This allowed us to maintain and increase our exposure in the 2010 shows."

"It’s difficult to accurately budget for a show because of the hidden and add-on charges. Show management needs to decrease these or make them clear up front so better planning can be done."

"I will continue to search for the trade shows that are more concerned with helping the exhibitor have a successful show rather than fleecing the exhibitors in every possible way. With the average 10-by-10-foot space costing well over $1,000, I will search for the best show that treats me right as an exhibitor. Some shows don’t deserve my business and won’t be getting it no matter how prestigious they consider themselves. Multi-show commitments are an abomination and won’t be considered."

Another optimistic finding is that 28 percent of survey respondents are considering purchasing a new exhibit in 2010, along with 21 percent who “definitely plan to purchase.” That’s good news for both industry suppliers and trade show exhibit managers, as it demonstrates an investment in the future of their programs — an investment that companies would be less likely to make if they saw a bleak future (or no future at all) for their face-to-face marketing programs.

That investment might be what’s fueling respondents’ confidence in their programs, which was demonstrated in response to the question: “How confident are you that your trade show program will achieve better results in 2010 than in 2009?” Defying strained budgets and continued economic hardships, not to mention less-than-stellar trade show attendance, a whopping 71 percent of exhibit managers reported being “confident” or “extremely confident” that their programs will achieve better results this year than last.

An additional driver behind that optimism is the belief that an improved economy and/or marketplace awaits us in 2010. But according to exhibit managers’ responses, the bulk of their confidence comes from a heightened ability to execute their programs more efficiently and effectively than in the past.



Sixty-nine percent of optimistic survey respondents attributed their confidence to “improved execution,” while others attributed their confidence to areas such as enhanced lead tracking and fulfillment capabilities, more effective booth staffing, a new or improved trade show exhibit, effective budget cuts, and more.

Additionally, most exhibit managers remain confident not only in their trade show programs, but in the effectiveness of trade shows themselves. An astounding 82 percent of survey respondents reported “optimistic” or “hopeful” outlooks regarding the marketing medium (a 6-percent increase over 2009 figures) despite budget cuts, despite attendance decreases, and despite those who continue to claim that the sky is falling for face-to-face marketing and that trade shows are no longer relevant.

It’s nearly impossible to know if this confidence will prove to be well founded, or if we will look back on 2010 and wonder how exhibit managers could have been so optimistic as the world appeared to be floundering in uncertainty. But if history repeats itself, these numbers will prove to be tempered and prematurely pessimistic compared to mid-year realities, as was the case in 2009, in which survey respondents expected more rampant and sizeable cuts than they actually experienced.

Still, trade show attendance continues to weigh heavily on exhibit managers’ minds. Seventy percent of respondents who anticipate worse returns in 2010 than their programs achieved in 2009 cite decreased attendance as a primary factor. And, as one respondent said, “If attendance at shows does not start picking up, we will stop exhibiting at them. We can’t be missed if no one comes to miss us.”

The charts and graphs on pages 24 to 27 contain key data points from our 2010 Economic Outlook Survey, along with a handful of participants’ quotes in response to an open-ended question regarding the economy and our industry. Visit www.ExhibitorWebLinks.com for more information on the survey and to download a full copy of the research report.E
 

Travis Stanton, editor; tstanton@exhibitormagazine.com
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